El Niño to flip to La Niña in what could be the hottest year on record – April 20, 2024

• El Niño is likely to give way soon, ushering in a quick switch to its opposite atmospheric and ocean pattern, La Niña. For the U.S., this climatological flip-flop will likely mean a greater risk of major hurricanes in the Atlantic as well as areas of drier-than-usual weather in the southern portions of the country. Globally, La Niña usually leads to declining temperatures, but the lag in when the effects take place means that 2024 will likely still be a top-five year for temperature in climate history, said Tom Di Liberto, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). “All signs suggest that 2024 is going to be another warm year,” Di Liberto told Live Science. 
• El Niño and La Niña describe opposing patterns in the trade winds that encircle the equator, blowing west from South America toward Asia. In a neutral year, when neither pattern is in play, these trade winds push warm water westward, which drives cool ocean water up from the depths to replace it. 0 seconds of 4 minutes, 15 seconds Volume 0%. When El Niño is in play, the trade winds weaken, so the eastern Pacific, along the west coast of North and South America, stays warmer. The effect, according to NOAA, is that the jet stream moves southward, drying Canada and the northern U.S. but bringing moisture to the southern portions of the U.S. 
• In a La Niña year, the trade winds strengthen, pushing warm water toward Asia and increasing the upwelling of cold water off the Pacific coast of the Americas. The jet stream moves northward, drying the Southwest and Southeast and bringing wetter weather to the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes. The El Niño pattern has officially been active since June 2023, but NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now reports that the pattern is weakening, with an 85% chance of a switch to neutral conditions before June. La Niña is then expected to roar back, with a 60% chance of La Niña conditions between June and August, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reports. “When it comes to El Niños of this strength, moderate to strong, it”s not uncommon to see these events end rapidly and then shift into La Niña rapidly,” Di Liberto said. Ocean measurements currently show warm surface temperatures in the Pacific, Di Liberto said, but below-average cold water beneath. Once that cold water hits the surface, the switch will happen quickly, he said. 
• The flip from El Niño to La Niña raises the risk of a strong upcoming hurricane season, said Alex DesRosiers, a doctoral candidate in atmospheric science at Colorado State University. During El Niño, rising heat from the eastern Pacific flows into the upper atmosphere, leading to stronger winds at high altitudes. This creates vertical wind shear — a difference in wind speed and direction at the surface versus higher in the atmosphere. And vertical wind shear, DesRosiers told Live Science, “can really act to tear apart hurricanes as they try to form.” 
• During La Niña, the upper atmosphere winds calm, reducing wind shear. This allows the convection of warm, moist air from the ocean surface to form big storms. “As we move into La Niña, the atmosphere becomes more supportive of allowing storms to bubble up and intensify,” DesRosiers said. As a result of the expected La Niña and current extremely warm Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures, CSU’s Tropical Weather & Climate Research team is currently predicting a very active Atlantic hurricane season, with a forecast of 23 named storms (versus the average of 14.4) and five hurricanes of Category 3 or higher (versus the average of 3.2). This year may look similar to 2010 and 2020, both of which were busy storm seasons, although it’s not guaranteed that strong storms will impact land, DesRosiers said. 
• All of these climatic patterns are taking place against a backdrop of rising ocean and surface temperatures. So, while La Niña usually brings cooler-than-average temperatures to the northern U.S., this region could still experience a scorching summer due to the background effects of climate change, Di Liberto said. Similarly, although 2023 was an El Niño year, which should suppress hurricanes, it saw an above-average hurricane season, DesRosiers said. This busy storm season might be due, in part, to 2023 being the warmest year on record. 

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Paradox of extreme cold events in a warming world – April 2024

• Warm Arctic-Cold Continent events are expected to intensify until the 2020s but decline post-2030s, impacting the global weather dynamics. The Warm Arctic-Cold Continent (WACC) phenomenon is the puzzling combination of Arctic warming and extreme coldness in specific mid-latitude regions. However, the progression of WACC events remains unclear amidst global warming. Scientists have now predicted a sharp decline in the WACC phenomenon post-2030s, affecting extreme weather events. These findings offer critical insights for communities, scientists, and policymakers to refine climate models and strategies and battle climate change.
• According to Copernicus Climate Change Service, February 2024 was the warmest February ever recorded globally. However, North America, Asia, and parts of Europe experienced record-breaking cold temperatures. In some places, such as China’s Mohe and Russia’s Yakutsk, temperatures dipped to the life-threatening lowest levels. Alarmingly, this juxtaposition of increasing temperatures amidst extreme coldness pushes the future of our planet’s climate into uncertainty.
• This paradoxical situation is captured by the Warm Arctic-Cold Continent (WACC) phenomenon, where warm Arctic temperatures lead to sea-ice decline and cold blasts across specific mid-latitude regions. The Arctic’s rapid warming indicates global climate change. However, as global warming and the Arctic’s temperature keep increasing, it is unclear how WACC events will unfold in the coming decades. To bridge this gap, a research group, led by Professor Jin-Ho Yoon and including Ph.D. student Yungi Hong, both from the School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Engineering at Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, Korea, has recently investigated the dynamics and evolution of extreme winter weather events — technically known as WACC. Using simulations of climate datasets, mainly obtained from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project, they forecasted the trajectory of WACC events in East Asia and North America, spanning from 1920 to 2100. The study’s findings were published in the journalnpj Climate and Atmospheric Scienceon March 11, 2024. Explaining their study, Prof. Yoon emphasizes, “The WACC pattern has significantly influenced winter climates, but what we see currently is merely the start of a drastic shift.” The research team found that despite global warming, WACC events have continued to intensify until the 2020s. Prof. Yoon points out, “These events will sharply decline post-2030s. Yet, this decline does not mean reduced extreme weather events in the future. Instead, winters will get warmer as global warming intensifies. Although cold snaps will occur less frequently, they may have more severe consequences when they do happen.”
• This declining trend will likely continue until the WACC phenomenon almost disappears by the late 21st century, bringing new extreme weather events. These findings reshape our understanding of the WACC events and highlight the need to update climate models for accurate predictions, enhancing preparation and response strategies. The findings also resonate with the hardships faced by communities worldwide, especially those in regions historically affected by the WACC.
• With the drastic shift in the WACC trajectory lurking closer, immediate action is thus needed to refine global climate strategies and reassess how societies will prepare and adapt. In this regard, Mr. Hong says, “Understanding the impact of the drastic shift in WACC events and devising adaptation and mitigation strategies determines the future of our winter climate, and it’s a stark reminder of the complexity of climate systems and the unexpected outcomes of climate change.”
• Overall, this study is a compelling call for communities, policymakers, and scientists to act. It is needed, now more than ever, to collaborate and adapt as we navigate the path to resilience against climate change!

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Meteorologists study atmospheric patterns

• Meteorology is the study of the atmosphere, atmospheric phenomena, and atmospheric effects on our weather. The atmosphere is the gaseous layer of the physical environment that surrounds a planet. Earth’s atmosphere is roughly 100 to 125 kilometers (65-75 miles) thick. Gravity keeps the atmosphere from expanding much farther. Meteorologists use scientific principles to observe, explain, and forecast our weather. They often focus on atmospheric research or operational weather forecasting. Research meteorologists cover several subdisciplines of meteorology to include: climate modeling, remote sensing, air quality, atmospheric physics, and climate change. They also research the relationship between the atmosphere and Earth’s climates, oceans, and biological life.
• Atmospheric conditions both at Earth’s surface and above are measured from a variety of sources: weather stations, ships, buoys, aircraft, radar, weather balloons, and satellites. This data is transmitted to centres throughout the world that produce computer analyses of global weather. The analyses are passed on to national and regional weather centers, which feed this data into computers that model the future state of the atmosphere. This transfer of information demonstrates how weather and the study of it take place in multiple, interconnected ways.
• Microscale meteorology focuses on phenomena that range in size from a few centimeters to a few kilometers, and that have short life spans (less than a day). These phenomena affect very small geographic areas, and the temperatures and terrains of those areas. Mesoscale phenomena range in size from a few kilometers to roughly 1,000 kilometers (620 miles). Two important phenomena are mesoscale convective complexes (MCC) and mesoscale convective systems (MCS). Both are caused by convection, an important meteorological principle. Synoptic-scale phenomena cover an area of several hundred or even thousands of kilometers. High- and low-pressure systems seen on local weather forecasts, are synoptic in scale. Pressure, much like convection, is an important meteorological principle that is at the root of large-scale weather systems as diverse as hurricanes and bitter cold outbreaks. Low-pressure systems occur where the atmospheric pressure at the surface of Earth is less than its surrounding environment. Wind and moisture from areas with higher pressure seek low-pressure systems. This movement, in conjunction with the Coriolis force and friction, causes the system to rotate counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere, creating a cyclone. Cyclones have a tendency for upward vertical motion. This allows moist air from the surrounding area to rise, expand and condense into water vapor, forming clouds. This movement of moisture and air causes the majority of our weather events. Global scale phenomena are weather patterns related to the transport of heat, wind, and moisture from the tropics to the poles. An important pattern is global atmospheric circulation, the large-scale movement of air that helps distribute thermal energy (heat) across the surface of the Earth.
• The development of meteorology is deeply connected to developments in science, math, and technology. The Greek philosopher Aristotle wrote the first major study of the atmosphere around 340 B.C.E. Many of Aristotle’s ideas were incorrect, however, because he did not believe it was necessary to make scientific observations. Military operations during World War I and World War II brought great advances to meteorology. The success of these operations was highly dependent on weather over vast regions of the globe. Today’s meteorologists have a variety of tools that help them examine, describe, model, and predict weather systems. These technologies are being applied at different meteorological scales, improving forecast accuracy and efficiency. Radar is an important remote sensing technology used in forecasting. A radar dish is an active sensor in that it sends out radio waves that bounce off particles in the atmosphere and return to the dish. A computer processes these pulses and determines the horizontal dimension of clouds and precipitation, and the speed and direction in which these clouds are moving.

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Solar eclipse on Monday, April 8, 2024

• A total solar eclipse will take place at the Moon’s ascending node on Monday, April 8, 2024, visible across North America and dubbed the Great North American Eclipse (also Great American Total Solar Eclipse and Great American Eclipse) by some of the media.
• A solar eclipse occurs when the Moon passes between Earth and the Sun, thereby obscuring the view of the Sun from a small part of Earth, totally or partially. Such an alignment occurs approximately every six months, during the eclipse season in its new moon phase, when the Moon’s orbital plane is closest to the plane of Earth’s orbit. Angulardiameter [22]: 33′ 0″(0.5583°) Mean radius: 1,737.10 km (1,079.38 mi) Distance: 363,104 km (225,622 mi).
• Planes to Montreal are departing with almost every seat filled – as eclipse chasers converge on the Canadian city for an astonishing astronomical event.
• During Monday’s total solar eclipse, the moon will blot out the sun along a 115-mile-wide “zone of totality” – a stripe of darkness sweeping across North America from Mexico’s Pacific Coast to Atlantic Canada.
• Climatic records going back decades showed the chances of clear skies were highest in the southwest US, with the prospect of cloud cover increasing later in the day as the eclipse moved northeast towards Canada.
• Texas is now expected to be beneath heavy cloud. The same goes for a large majority of locations in the zone of totality, including Niagara Falls – where a state of emergency has been declared due to the expected numbers of eclipse viewers. The only expected breaks in the clouds are likely to be a small patch of the Midwest (parts of Missouri and Indiana), southern Quebec and northern Maine. That leaves Montreal, with a population of 1.8 million, as the only big city where a clear view of totality is almost guaranteed.

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At least 27 dead as flooding ravages southeast Brazil – 25 Mar 2024

• At least 27 people have been killed in southeast Brazil as rainfall continues to ravage parts of the country. The death toll in the Brazilian state of Espirito Santo rose to 19, and at least eight people have been killed in neighboring state Rio de Janeiro, CNN Brasil reported citing each state’s respective Civil Defense. At least six people are still missing, and more than 7,000 people were forced to flee their homes in Espirito Santo, according to CNN Brasil.
• Warnings for heavy rainfall are in place through Tuesday morning with lingering threats of scattered showers and storms over the region, according to the latest forecast predictions, where rainfall can potentially reach up to 50 millimeters (2 inches) per day through Tuesday. There are higher rainfall chances and new flood potential in central Brazil through midweek, with daily rainfall potentially reaching 100 mm (4 inches) in 24 hours.
• Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva shared his condolences to those affected in a post on X on Saturday, saying “the federal government sympathizes with the affected families and lives lost and is in constant contact with state and municipal governments to protect, prevent and repair flood damage.” Rescue operations are underway in both states, and residents are being urged to exercise caution, Rio de Janeiro Governor Claudio Castro and Espirito Santo Governor Renato Casagrande posted on X late last week. Flooding and landslides remain one of the main concerns as rainfall has yet to cease through the week. The climate crisis is helping to fuel more intense and more frequent rainfall events, and in Brazil this combines with rapid urbanization and often unsafe construction to deadly effect. More than 30 were killed after heavy rains last year in Rio Grande do Sul, while another 20 died in flooding in 2022 in Sao Paulo.
• Rescuers raced against the clock on Sunday to help isolated people in Brazil’s mountainous southeast, after storms and heavy rains killed at least 25 people in two states. The most affected municipality was Mimoso do Sul, a town of almost 25,000 inhabitants in the south of Espirito Santo, where flooding has killed at least 15 people. State Governor Renato Casagrande described the situation as “chaotic”, though falling water levels were allowing rescuers to make their way to previously inaccessible areas.

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March 2024 Full Moon significance

• Usually, there are two eclipses in a row, but other times, there are three during the same eclipse season. When the Sun, Earth, and Moon almost perfectly align on March 25 at 07:00 UTC for a Full Moon, it also coincides with a whole bunch of lunar events. On the night of March 24-25, the Moon will be eclipsed by Earth’s outer, lighter shadow, its penumbra, resulting in a penumbral lunar eclipse.
• It can be difficult to spot Earth’s light penumbral shadow on the Moon’s surface, but if you know the timings and look closely, it might be visible from the night side of the globe. An eclipse never comes alone: next up in this eclipse season is a total solar eclipse on April 8. You may not easily see that the Moon is eclipsed, but there may be another reason why the Moon may seem a bit dimmer. This Full Moon is the last in a row of three Micro Full Moons, which can also make it look a fraction smaller and dimmer in the sky. Because the Moon’s orbit is more an oval (known as an ellipse) than a perfect circle, the Moon is sometimes closer and sometimes farther from Earth. When the Full Moon is near its farthest point from Earth—its apogee— (highest point in the development) it is defined as a Micro Full Moon.
• This month, the Moon reaches apogee a couple of days before it is full, on March 23 at 15:45 UTC, when it will be 406,294 km (252,460 miles) from Earth. This Full Moon falls close to the March equinox. “In the summer, the Full Moon passes low across the sky and is ‘up’ for less than 12 hours. In the winter, the Full Moon can be seen riding high in the sky, and it’s above the horizon for more than 12 hours. “Around the equinox, the time between moonrise and moonset at Full Moon is in the region of 12 hours or so.”
• People have been naming the Full Moon as a way to track the change of months and seasons since ancient times, and the March Full Moon has many names. It is known as the Death Moon in Old English after the purity of spring and to signal new life. Most commonly known as the Worm Moon, after the worms coming out of the ground as it thaws in spring, Native American tribes named this Moon Crow Moon, Snow Crust Moon, and Sap or Sugar Moon. The Celts called it the Wind Moon and Plough Moon. This Full Moon also holds significance in the Christian faith. Because it is the first Full Moon on or after March 21, it is also the Paschal Moon. This particular Full Moon is used to determine the date of Easter. This year, the Hindu spring festival Holi coincides with the penumbral lunar eclipse. It may affect how Holi is celebrated on March 25 as some people may have restrictions on what they do during an eclipse. The Hindu calendar uses a lunisolar system, meaning that it takes into account the apparent movements of both the Moon and the Sun, as seen from Earth.

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Extreme Weather and Climate Change

• As Earth’s climate changes, it is impacting extreme weather across the planet. Record-breaking heat waves on land and in the ocean, drenching rains, severe floods, years-long droughts, extreme wildfires, and widespread flooding during hurricanes are all becoming more frequent and more intense.
• Human actions since the Industrial Revolution, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, have caused greenhouse gases to rapidly rise in the atmosphere. As carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases increase, they act as a blanket, trapping heat and warming the planet. In response, Earth’s air and ocean temperatures warm. This warming affects the water cycle, shifts weather patterns, and melts land ice — all impacts that can make extreme weather worse.
• Research says all the risks from these extreme weather events will escalate the more the planet warms. However, IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report also describes some climate change mitigation strategies, technological developments, and methods for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
• Scientists use a combination of climate models (simulations) and land, air, sea, and space-based observations to research how extreme weather events change over time. First, scientists examine historical records to determine the frequency and intensity of past events. Many of these long-term records date back to the 1950s, though some start in the 1800s. Then scientists use climate models to see if the number or strength of these events is changing, or will change, due to increasing greenhouse gases when compared to what has happened historically.

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Radar through the years

• In 1975, weather radars used old vacuum tubes, similar to television sets of that era. Radar displays consisted of varying shades of gray to show different intensities of the rain or snow.
• Coarse low resolution radar images similar to those that would be present during 1970s. Left: radar image of severe thunderstorm from 1960s and right: 74C radar image of squall line with trailing area of light rain. Source for both images is medialine.com.  
• Today’s weather radars operated by the National Weather Service are highly sensitive and include Doppler capabilities. They provide fine resolution measurements of reflectivity and velocity and multiple categories of analysis products. Data and information from these radars allow forecasters to look inside storms and infer wind speed and direction.
• Recent radar advancements – Additionally, an upgrade to dual polarization products in all National Weather Service radars in 2012-2015 allows forecasters to better determine atmospheric target type, size and diversity. These new dual polarization capabilities allow forecasters to better identify precipitation type, which ultimately helps with winter weather forecasting and hail detection, improves precipitation estimation, filters out non-meteorogical targets so forecasters can only focus on meteorological phenomena, and identifies airborne.
• The first radar was patented 110 years ago. Fast forward to today, radar applications have become ubiquitous in typical applications i.e. speed control, air traffic control, airborne and space-borne missions, military applications and remote sensing. Research for medical radar applications is also progressing well for breast cancer detection and tumor localization. Automotive radar for safety and autonomous driving are meanwhile being produced in millions per year. Despite the significant technological advancements the radar system technology unfortunately did not evolve like the communications and other related technologies for the last 20 years. With the development of high-speed electronic devices and higher demand for radar systems, the current state-of-the-art radar system concepts will undergo a revolution. They will be conceptualized and integrated in the current radar technologies leading to revolutionary radar systems. This will ultimately lead to new radar features and radar signal processing.

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Mystery of enormous Saharan ‘star dune’ finally solved — and it wasn’t what scientists were expecting – published 3 days ago

• Tall, many-armed star dunes are common in deserts worldwide, but scientists know little about the histories of these formations. A towering, star-shaped dune in the Sahara desert formed in less than a thousand years, new research finds.
• The study, published March 4 in the journal Scientific Reports, is one of relatively few to look at these so-called star dunes, which are the tallest dunes on Earth. Named for their multiple-armed shapes, star dunes form in places where the winds change direction throughout the year, according to the National Park Service. Although star dunes are found all over the world, there is only one confirmed star dune in the rock record, from about 250 million years ago in Scotland, Charles Bristow, a professor emeritus of sedimentology at University College London, told Live Science. That may be because researchers don’t know what to look for to identify an ancient star dune, he said. These dunes are difficult to study because they’re usually in remote locations, and slogging up a few hundred feet of shifting sand is not easy.
• The dune is in Morocco in a dune field called Erg Chebbi. Luckily for the researchers, the area has become a popular tourist stop, so there are good roads and hotels around the edges of the dune field. The dune itself is about 330 feet (100 meters) tall. It’s known as Lala Lallia by locals.
• To collect data on the dune, Bristow, study co-author Geoff Duller of Aberystwyth University and research students used ground-penetrating radar, which can detect small differences in sand grain sizes and water content beneath the dune’s surface. This technique allowed the researchers to build a picture of the dune’s interior layers. They also dug trenches to take samples of long-buried sands. The quartz in the sand accrues radiation from natural sources within the Earth while buried. By shining a laser on the quartz, researchers can measure this radiation and determine when the sand last saw the surface.
• This look inside the dune revealed a surprisingly short history. “The thing that stood out most was how young it is,” Bristow said. “We expected that a sand dune that is 100 meters high was going to be quite old … thousands of years, maybe tens of thousands of years. And it turned out that this dune was 900 years old.” The sands near the base of the dune were buried about 12,000 to 13,000 years ago; these represent ancient dunes in the region, Bristow said. Shortly after these old dunes were active came an 8,000-year period when sand did not accumulate. The first part of this quiet period coincided with a shift toward a warm, wet climate in the Sahara around 11,700 years ago, which marked the end of the last ice age and the beginning of the Holocene. “The Sahara went green,” Bristow said. Vegetation sprouted, stabilizing the sand, and humans wandered a marshy environment, probably hunting for food. Pottery fragments and stone tools have been found on one side of Lala Lallia dune. About 4,000 years ago, this wet period ended and the Sahara dried out again. The dune did not start building up immediately, though, Bristow said. Likely, there was a lag as sand blew through but did not accumulate, or as the dune started accumulating in another location. Lala Lallia has shifted by about 1.6 feet (0.5 meters), every year, the researchers found. The star dune started growing only within the past 900 years or so, the team found.
• The findings suggest that, although there probably are star dunes locked in sandstones around the world, they’re difficult to detect, Bristow said. Because the dunes are huge and lack a single distinguishing feature, researchers would need large exposed beds of rock to get a broad-enough view to identify a star dune. In some places, though, it might be possible to make those identifications.

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